Double Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Food Crop Yields Using Geographic Information Systems
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32736/sisfokom.v13i2.2069Keywords:
Double Exponential Smoothing, Forecasting, Crops, Geographic Information SystemsAbstract
Food is a source of basic needs for every living creature, so food security is an interesting issue for every country. This raises problems regarding food and land use, especially in Sungai Penuh City. Food problems arise due to a lack of information regarding appropriate land use and the productivity of the land itself. In the current industrial era 4.0, forecasting can be done using information technology tools that provide convenience and efficiency in forecasting times and can be integrated with geographic information systems. The forecasts made by the community are based on past experience without considering the factors that influence crop yields, so that they can cause losses both in terms of time and costs. Apart from that, less accurate predictions of food yields can lead to less than optimal development of food security which has an impact on meeting food needs. This research involved respondents from the Department of Agriculture and Food Security, namely agricultural and food experts. The method for collecting data in this research is observation and interviews. This research analyzes harvest data for the 2018-2023 period sourced from the Central Statistics Agency using the Double Exponential Smoothing method by considering error values with ? = 0.1 and 0.5 and ? = 0.1 and 0.5. The calculation of the smallest error value is: ME = 80.92, MAD = 5.58, MAPE = 11%, MSE = 52.69 by combining the value of ?= 0.1 and the value of ? = 0.1 to produce a prediction of the corn harvest in Kumun Debai District in 2024 of 45 tons and year 2025 as much as 40 tons.References
Anggodo, Yusuf Ptiyo dan Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy. Peramalan Butuhan Hidup Minimum Menggunakan Automatic Clustering Dan Fuzzy Logical Relationship. Jurnal Teknologi Informasi Dan Komputer (JTIIK), 3(2), p.94-120.
CC, Holt. 2004 Forecasting Seasonals And Trends By Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Int. J. Forecast. 20. P.5-13.
Heizer, Jay dan Barry, Render. 2015. Manajemen Operasi, Edisi 11, Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Assauri, Sofjan. 2016. Manajemen Operasi Produksi Edisi 3. Jakarta : Raja Grafindo Persada.
Stevenson, William J Dan Sum Chee Choung. 2014. Operation Menagement: An Asian Prespective. Jakarta : Salemba Empat.
Budiyanto, E., 2016. Sistem Informasi Geografis dengan Quatum GIS. Yogyakarta : Andi Offset.
Nyerges, T., 2009. GIS and Society, University of Washington, Seatle, WA, USA.
Vatsavai, R., S. Shekhar, T. E. Burk, Lime, S., 2014. Mapserver : A high performance, interoperable, and open source web mapping and geo-spatial analysis system, Geographic Information Science, pp.400-4017.
Chen Tian-En, L.P., Chen, Yunbin, G.Y., WANG.2009. Spasial Decision Support System For Percision Farming Based On GIS Web Service, Information Technology And Application. 2 p.372-376.
Mohammed, E.S. Saleh, A.M., Belal, A.A. 2014. Sustainability Indicators For Agriculture Land Use Based GIS Spacial Modeling In Notrth On Sinai-Engypt, The Engyptian Journal Of Remote Sensing And Space Science. 17 p.1-15.
E. Vercher, A. Corberan-Vallet, J.V. Segura, Et Al. 2012. Initial Conditions Estima-Tion For Improving Forecast Accuracy In Exponential Smoothing, 20. p. 517–533.
R.R. Yager. 2013. Exponential smoothing with credibility weighted observations, Inf.Sci. 252. p. 96–105.
A.L. Santiago Maia, F.D.A.T. De Carvalho, Et Al. 2011. Holt’s Exponential Smoothingand Neural Network Models For Forecasting Interval-Valued Time Series, Int. J.Forecast. 27. p.740–759.
A.B. Koehler, R.D. Snyder, J.K. Ord, Et Al. 2016, A Study Of Outliers In The Expo-Nential Smoothing Approach To Forecasting, Int. J. Forecast. 47(28). P.7–484.
Nyerges, T., 2009. Gis And Society. University of washinton, staatle, WA,USA.
B. Siregar and I. A. Butar-Butar and R. F. Rahmat and U. Andayani and F Fahmi, “Comparison of Exponential Smoothing Methods in Forecasting Palm Oil Real Production”, Journal of Physics: Conference Series, IOP Publishing, 2017.
Mumpuni, Retno. dkk. 2020. Design and Implementation of Inventory Forecasting System using Double Exponential Smoothing Method. Information Technology International Seminar (ITIS) IEEE 2020 p.119- 124.
F. Petropoulos, N. Kourentzes, K. Nikolopoulos, E. Siemsen, “Judgmental selection of forecasting models”, Journal of Operations Management, Volume 69, 2018.
R. Majid, S.Mir., “Advances in Statistical Forecasting Methods: An Overview”, Economic Affairs, 63. 815-831, 2018.
Y. Tikhamarine, D. S. Gamane, A. N. Ahmed, O. Kisi, A. El-Shafie, “Improving artificial intelligence models accuracy for monthly streamflow forecasting using grey Wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm”, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 582, 2020.
G. Kaur, A. Bala, I. Chana, “An intelligent regressive ensemble approach for predicting resource usage in cloud computing”, Journal of Parallel and Distributed Computing, Elsevier, 2019.
A. Vidianto, “Iii-73 Rancang Bangun Sistem Informasi Dan Peramalan Penjualan Menggunakan Analisa Forecasting.” Accessed: Apr. 16, 2020.
N. Aini, R. Ruktiari, M. R. Pratama, and A. F. Buana, “Sistem Prediksi Tingkat Pencemaran Polusi Udara dengan Algoritma Naïve Bayes di Kota Makassar Air Pollution Level Prediction System Using Naïve Bayes Algorithm in Makassar,” Pros. Semin. Nas. Komun. dan Inform., vol. 3, pp. 83–90, 2019.
Hasmin, erfan., Nurul Aini. 2020. Data Mining For Inventory Forecasting Using Double Exponential Smoothing Method. International Conference on Cybernetics and Intelligent System. IEEE 2020.
Yicheng Li, Yang Liu, Wei Bai, Bin Li, Lixiong Xu. 2021. A Data-based Water-inflow Forecasting Method for Small/medium Sized Hydropower Plants in Spot Market. IEEE Sustainable Power and Energy Conference (iSPEC) 2021.
Downloads
Additional Files
- Double Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Food Crop Yields Using Geographic Information Systems
- Double Exponential Smoothing Prakiraan Hasil Panen Tanaman Pangan Memanfaatkan Sistem Informasi Geografis
- Double Exponential Smoothing Prakiraan Hasil Panen Tanaman Pangan Memanfaatkan Sistem Informasi Geografis
- Double Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Food Crop Yields Using Geographic Information Systems
- Double Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Food Crop Yields Using Geographic Information Systems
- Double Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Food Crop Yields Using Geographic Information Systems
Published
Issue
Section
License
The copyright of the article that accepted for publication shall be assigned to Jurnal Sisfokom (Sistem Informasi dan Komputer) and LPPM ISB Atma Luhur as the publisher of the journal. Copyright includes the right to reproduce and deliver the article in all form and media, including reprints, photographs, microfilms, and any other similar reproductions, as well as translations.
Jurnal Sisfokom (Sistem Informasi dan Komputer), LPPM ISB Atma Luhur, and the Editors make every effort to ensure that no wrong or misleading data, opinions or statements be published in the journal. In any way, the contents of the articles and advertisements published in Jurnal Sisfokom (Sistem Informasi dan Komputer) are the sole and exclusive responsibility of their respective authors.
Jurnal Sisfokom (Sistem Informasi dan Komputer) has full publishing rights to the published articles. Authors are allowed to distribute articles that have been published by sharing the link or DOI of the article. Authors are allowed to use their articles for legal purposes deemed necessary without the written permission of the journal with the initial publication notification from the Jurnal Sisfokom (Sistem Informasi dan Komputer).
The Copyright Transfer Form can be downloaded [Copyright Transfer Form Jurnal Sisfokom (Sistem Informasi dan Komputer).
This agreement is to be signed by at least one of the authors who have obtained the assent of the co-author(s). After submission of this agreement signed by the corresponding author, changes of authorship or in the order of the authors listed will not be accepted. The copyright form should be signed originally, and send it to the Editorial in the form of scanned document to sisfokom@atmaluhur.ac.id.
